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Short title
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Earthquake predictability
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Oral presentation
Date/Room/Chair
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May 21 AM1 (09:00 - 10:45)
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201B
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Jiancang Zhuang
/ Hiroshi Tsuruoka
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May 21 AM2 (11:00 - 12:45)
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201B
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Danijel Schorlemmer
/ Takeo Ishibe
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Poster presentation
Date/Room
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May 21 (Core Time 18:15 - 19:30)
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Convention Hall
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Contact
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Naoshi Hirata
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Email
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hirata@eri.u-tokyo.ac.jp
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Convener
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Naoshi Hirata
/ Hiroshi Tsuruoka
/ Danijel Schorlemmer
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Scope
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Modern earthquake science requires rigorous experimentation. Earthquake predictability studies (e.g. Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability) emphasize the importance of testing earthquake forecast models so far. Japan, California, New Zealand and other regions are currently operating or developing regional centers for such tests, and the findings may yield a better understanding not only of the models' basic features but also of particular physical aspects of earthquake occurrence. We solicit presentations about forecast models, their components, and their performance, in particular statistical models. Especially, we would like to discuss problems in forecasting large earthquakes such as recent devastating events in Japan and New Zealand.
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Notes
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| Time |
Presentation No |
Title |
Author |
Presenter |
Abstract |
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Oral Presentation May 21 AM1 (09:00-10:45) 201B to the top
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09:00 - 09:15
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SSS02-01
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Short-term earthquake forecasting experiment before and during the L'Aquila seismic sequence of April 2009
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Jiancang Zhuang
Rodolfo Console
Maura Murru
other
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Jiancang Zhuang
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09:15 - 09:30
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SSS02-02
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Forecasting Moderate Seismicity by Using the Moment Ratio Method
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Abdelhak Talbi
Mohamed Hamdache
Mourad Mobarki
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Abdelhak Talbi
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09:30 - 09:45
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SSS02-03
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Identification of the Nucleation Stage of Natural Earthquakes by Monitoring Microcracks
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Motoki Fujii
NODA, Yoichi
TAKAHASHI, Kozo
other
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Motoki Fujii
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09:45 - 10:00
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SSS02-04
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Physical properties of laboratory faults inferred from seismic event statistics during stick-slip experiments
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Thomas H. W. Goebel
Danijel Schorlemmer
Thorsten W. Becker
other
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Danijel Schorlemmer
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10:00 - 10:15
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SSS02-05
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Analysis of Induced seismicity after the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake by non-stationary ETAS models
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Takao Kumazawa
Yosihiko Ogata
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Takao Kumazawa
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10:15 - 10:30
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SSS02-06
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An earthquake forecast experiment in the northwest Pacific using RI model
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Hiroshi Tsuruoka
Naoshi Hirata
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Hiroshi Tsuruoka
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10:30 - 10:45
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SSS02-07
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Estimating statistical models of seismicity under incomplete detection of earthquakes
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Takahiro Omi
Yosihiko Ogata
Yoshito Hirata
other
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Takahiro Omi
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Oral Presentation May 21 AM2 (11:00-12:45) 201B to the top
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11:00 - 11:20
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Invited
SSS02-08
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Research towards practical earthquake forecasting
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Yosihiko Ogata
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Yosihiko Ogata
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11:20 - 11:40
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Invited
SSS02-09
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Testability of maximum magnitude estimates
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Danijel Schorlemmer
Robert A. Clements
Alvaro Gonzalez
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Danijel Schorlemmer
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11:40 - 11:55
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SSS02-10
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An earthquake forecast testing experiment with statistical seismology in Japanese earthquake prediction research program
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Naoshi Hirata
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Naoshi Hirata
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11:55 - 12:10
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SSS02-11
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Contribution of Coulomb stress changes by the 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake on seismicity rate change in the Kanto region
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Takeo Ishibe
Kenji Satake
Shin'ichi Sakai
other
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Takeo Ishibe
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12:10 - 12:25
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SSS02-12
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Impact of the 2011 M=9.0 Tohoku-oki earthquake on increased seismic hazard for greater Tokyo
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Shinji Toda
Stein, Ross S.
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Shinji Toda
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12:25 - 12:40
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SSS02-13
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M=9.0 Tohoku Earthquake and tsunami; a new interpretation
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Shigenori Maruyama
Toshikazu Ebisuzaki
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Shigenori Maruyama
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| Presentation No |
Title |
Author |
Presenter |
Abstract |
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Poster Presentation May 21 Core Time (18:15-19:30) Convention Hall to the top
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SSS02-P01
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A Revision of the National Observation and Research Program for the Prediction of Earthquakes and Volcanic Eruptions
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Shinobu Ando
Toshitsugu Fujii
Naoshi Hirata
other
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Shinobu Ando
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SSS02-P02
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Three-dimensional earthquake forecasting model for the Kanto district
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Sayoko Yokoi
Hiroshi Tsuruoka
Naoshi Hirata
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Sayoko Yokoi
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SSS02-P03
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Testing the probability forecasts in 2011 for small interplate repeating earthquakes along the Japan Trench
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Masami Okada
UCHIDA, Naoki
AOKI, Shigeki
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Masami Okada
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