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Short title
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Earthquake predictability
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Oral presentation
Date/Room/Chair
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May 2 PM1 (14:15 - 16:00)
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419
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Danijel Schorlemmer
/ Jiancang Zhuang
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May 2 PM2 (16:15 - 18:00)
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419
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Hiroshi Tsuruoka
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Contact
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Hiroshi Tsuruoka
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Email
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tsuru@eri.u-tokyo.ac.jp
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Convener
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Hiroshi Tsuruoka
/ Danijel Schorlemmer
/ Naoshi Hirata
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Scope
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Modern earthquake predictability studies emphasize the importance of testing earthquake forecast models. Japan, California, New Zealand, and other regions are currently operating or developing regional centers for such testing experiments under the auspices of the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). These experiments are yielding a better understanding not only of the models' basic features but also of particular physical aspects of earthquake occurrence. We solicit presentations about a wide variety of forecast models including statistical and/or physics-based models, their components, performance, and methods of testing. We would like to discuss problems in forecasting large earthquakes such as recent devastating events in Japan and New Zealand. In addition, evaluation methods of earthquake forecasting are discussed.
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Notes
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| Time |
Presentation No |
Title |
Author |
Presenter |
Abstract |
|
Oral Presentation May 2 PM1 (14:15-16:00) 419 to the top
|
|
14:15 - 14:30
|
Invited
SSS01-01
|
Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability - Global Activities
|
SCHORLEMMER, Danijel
GERSTENBERGER, Matt
HIRATA, Naoshi
other
|
SCHORLEMMER, Danijel
|
English
|
|
14:30 - 14:45
|
SSS01-02
|
One-day earthquake forecasting experiment in Japan after the 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake
|
HIRATA, Naoshi
TSURUOKA, Hiroshi
|
TSURUOKA, Hiroshi
|
English
|
|
14:45 - 15:00
|
SSS01-03
|
Prospective evaluation of 3-month testing class of the CSEP-Japan earthquake forecasts
|
TSURUOKA, Hiroshi
HIRATA, Naoshi
|
TSURUOKA, Hiroshi
|
English
|
|
15:00 - 15:15
|
Invited
SSS01-04
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Does using Coulomb stress change information create quantifiable improvements in earthquake forecast models?
|
GERSTENBERGER, Matt
STEACY, Sandy
MARZOCCHI, Warner
other
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GERSTENBERGER, Matt
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English
|
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15:15 - 15:30
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SSS01-05
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Test of the argument for remote dynamic triggering by small mainshocks
|
PENG, Wei
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PENG, Wei
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English
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|
15:30 - 15:45
|
SSS01-06
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Prediction performance of empirically defined foreshocks in the Izu region
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MAEDA, Kenji
HIROSE, Fuyuki
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MAEDA, Kenji
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English
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15:45 - 16:00
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Invited
SSS01-07
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Foreshocks and short-term forecasting: comparisons between real seismicity and synthetic catalogs
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OGATA, Yosihiko
|
OGATA, Yosihiko
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English
|
|
Oral Presentation May 2 PM2 (16:15-18:00) 419 to the top
|
|
16:15 - 16:30
|
SSS01-08
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Modelling the effect of fault geometry on earthquake triggering
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GUO, Yicun
ZHUANG, Jiancang
ZHOU, Shiyong
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ZHUANG, Jiancang
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English
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16:30 - 16:45
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SSS01-09
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History of network detection completeness in Japan
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SCHORLEMMER, Danijel
HIRATA, Naoshi
ISHIGAKI, Yuzo
other
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SCHORLEMMER, Danijel
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English
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16:45 - 17:00
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SSS01-10
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Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability & Global Earthquake Model - Testing Center Software Development
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BEUTIN, Thomas
LIUKIS, Maria
MAECHLING, Philip
other
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BEUTIN, Thomas
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English
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17:00 - 17:15
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SSS01-11
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Lithospheric stress and deformation, and megathrust prediction
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HONG, Tae-kyung
LEE, Junhyung
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HONG, Tae-kyung
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English
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17:15 - 17:30
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SSS01-12
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Global distribution of the earthquake-induced Schumann resonance anomalies
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ZHOU, Hongjuan
CAO, Bingxia
YU, Haiyan
other
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ZHOU, Hongjuan
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English
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