Outline of Session


Solid Earth Sciences(S) / Seismology(SS) /  **International Session
S-SS01 Exploring our limits in understanding earthquakes and improving our knowledge -CSEP Experiment in Japan-

Short title Earthquake Predictability (CSEP-Japan)
Oral presentation
May 24 PM1 (14:15 - 16:00) 102B Hiroshi Tsuruoka  / Danijel Schorlemmer 
May 24 PM2 (16:15 - 18:00) 102B Jiancang Zhuang  / Takeo Ishibe 
Poster presentation
May 24 (Core Time 18:15 - 19:30) Convention Hall
Contact Hiroshi Tsuruoka
Email tsuru@eri.u-tokyo.ac.jp
Convener Hiroshi Tsuruoka  / Danijel Schorlemmer  / Naoshi Hirata 
Scope Modern earthquake predictability studies emphasize the importance of testing earthquake forecast models. Japan, California, New Zealand, and other regions are currently operating or developing regional centers for such testing experiments under the auspices of the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). The experiments in Japan were started on 1st November 2009 and various models are currently under test in three testing regions (so-called 'AllJapan', 'Mainland' and 'Kanto'), each covering different forecasting periods (1 day, 3 months, 1 year, and 3 years). The 2011 Tohoku earthquake and its aftershocks has provided a great opportunity for these testing experiments . This session aims at discussing their results and the lessons learned from this earthquake leading to improvements of earthquake forecast models. Current testing in Japan is limited to earthquake rates. We solicit presentations that discuss extending CSEP activities in Japan to the fields of external forecasts, hazard model testing, ground-motion prediction testing, risk model testing, and the development of new testing metrics. All presentations exploring the limits of understanding the earthquake phenomenon and its impact on society are welcome.

Time Presentation No Title Author Presenter Abstract
Oral Presentation   May 24 PM1 (14:15-16:00) 102B                              to the top
14:15 - 14:30 SSS01-01 Real-time Classifier of Foreshocks Using Probability Density Ratio Estimation NOMURA, Shunichi NOMURA, Shunichi English
14:30 - 14:45 SSS01-02 Forecast uncertainty in aftershock forecasting OMI, Takahiro
OGATA, Yosihiko
HIRATA, Yoshito
OMI, Takahiro English
14:45 - 15:00 SSS01-03 Correlation between Coulomb stress imparted by the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake and seismicity rate change in Kanto, Japan ISHIBE, Takeo
SAKAI, Shin'ichi
ISHIBE, Takeo English
15:00 - 15:15 SSS01-04 CSEP-Japan testing results with multiple runs since 2009 including the 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake TSURUOKA, Hiroshi
HIRATA, Naoshi
TSURUOKA, Hiroshi English
15:15 - 15:30 Invited
Forecasting seismicity after the Tohoku-Oki earthquake OGATA, Yosihiko OGATA, Yosihiko English
15:30 - 15:45 Invited
Post-Disaster Damage Mapping as Tool for Risk Testing SCHORLEMMER, Danijel
BEUTIN, Thomas
SCHORLEMMER, Danijel English
15:45 - 16:00 SSS01-07 Comparing USGS national seismic hazard maps with DYFI intensity observations MAK, Sum
MAK, Sum English
Oral Presentation   May 24 PM2 (16:15-18:00) 102B                              to the top
16:15 - 16:30 SSS01-08 Detecting spatial variations of earthquake clustering parameters via maximum weighted likelihoods estimates ZHUANG, Jiancang ZHUANG, Jiancang English
16:30 - 16:45 SSS01-09 Frequency distribution of the number of earthquake occurrence YAMASHINA, Ken'ichiro
HIMENO, Tetsuto
YAMASHINA, Ken'ichiro English
16:45 - 17:00 SSS01-10 History of network detection completeness in Japan SCHORLEMMER, Danijel
HIRATA, Naoshi
SCHORLEMMER, Danijel English
17:00 - 17:15 SSS01-11 Assessment of optimal short-term earthquake forecasts based on ULF seismo-magnetic data HAN, Peng
HATTORI, Katsumi
ZHUANG, Jiancang
HAN, Peng English
17:15 - 17:30 SSS01-12 Earthquake mechanism in post-megathrust intraplate stress HONG, Tae-kyung
LEE, Junhyung
HOUNG, Soung eil
HONG, Tae-kyung English
17:30 - 17:45 Discussion

Presentation No Title Author Presenter Abstract
Poster Presentation   May 24  Core Time (18:15-19:30) Convention Hall                    to the top
SSS01-P01 Overview of Widespread Seismicity Changes inland Japan Following the 2011 Tohoku-Oki Earthquake and Its Interpretation ISHIBE, Takeo ISHIBE, Takeo English
SSS01-P02 Three-dimensional earthquake forecasting model for the Kanto district:Results of retrospective and prospective tests YOKOI, Sayoko
HIRATA, Naoshi
YOKOI, Sayoko English
SSS01-P03 Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability & Global Earthquake Model - Testing Center Software Development BEUTIN, Thomas
BEUTIN, Thomas English