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Short title
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Earthquake Predictability (CSEP-Japan)
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Oral presentation
Date/Room/Chair
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May 24 PM1 (14:15 - 16:00)
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102B
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Hiroshi Tsuruoka
/ Danijel Schorlemmer
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May 24 PM2 (16:15 - 18:00)
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102B
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Jiancang Zhuang
/ Takeo Ishibe
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Poster presentation
Date/Room
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May 24 (Core Time 18:15 - 19:30)
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Convention Hall
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Contact
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Hiroshi Tsuruoka
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Email
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tsuru@eri.u-tokyo.ac.jp
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Convener
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Hiroshi Tsuruoka
/ Danijel Schorlemmer
/ Naoshi Hirata
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Scope
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Modern earthquake predictability studies emphasize the importance of testing earthquake forecast models. Japan, California, New Zealand, and other regions are currently operating or developing regional centers for such testing experiments under the auspices of the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). The experiments in Japan were started on 1st November 2009 and various models are currently under test in three testing regions (so-called 'AllJapan', 'Mainland' and 'Kanto'), each covering different forecasting periods (1 day, 3 months, 1 year, and 3 years). The 2011 Tohoku earthquake and its aftershocks has provided a great opportunity for these testing experiments . This session aims at discussing their results and the lessons learned from this earthquake leading to improvements of earthquake forecast models. Current testing in Japan is limited to earthquake rates. We solicit presentations that discuss extending CSEP activities in Japan to the fields of external forecasts, hazard model testing, ground-motion prediction testing, risk model testing, and the development of new testing metrics. All presentations exploring the limits of understanding the earthquake phenomenon and its impact on society are welcome.
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Notes
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| Time |
Presentation No |
Title |
Author |
Presenter |
Abstract |
|
Oral Presentation May 24 PM1 (14:15-16:00) 102B to the top
|
|
14:15 - 14:30
|
SSS01-01
|
Real-time Classifier of Foreshocks Using Probability Density Ratio Estimation
|
NOMURA, Shunichi
|
NOMURA, Shunichi
|
English
|
|
14:30 - 14:45
|
SSS01-02
|
Forecast uncertainty in aftershock forecasting
|
OMI, Takahiro
OGATA, Yosihiko
HIRATA, Yoshito
other
|
OMI, Takahiro
|
English
|
|
14:45 - 15:00
|
SSS01-03
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Correlation between Coulomb stress imparted by the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake and seismicity rate change in Kanto, Japan
|
ISHIBE, Takeo
SATAKE, Kenji
SAKAI, Shin'ichi
other
|
ISHIBE, Takeo
|
English
|
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15:00 - 15:15
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SSS01-04
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CSEP-Japan testing results with multiple runs since 2009 including the 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake
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TSURUOKA, Hiroshi
HIRATA, Naoshi
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TSURUOKA, Hiroshi
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English
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15:15 - 15:30
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Invited
SSS01-05
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Forecasting seismicity after the Tohoku-Oki earthquake
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OGATA, Yosihiko
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OGATA, Yosihiko
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English
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15:30 - 15:45
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Invited
SSS01-06
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Post-Disaster Damage Mapping as Tool for Risk Testing
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SCHORLEMMER, Danijel
BEUTIN, Thomas
FANSELOW, Florian
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SCHORLEMMER, Danijel
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English
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15:45 - 16:00
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SSS01-07
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Comparing USGS national seismic hazard maps with DYFI intensity observations
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MAK, Sum
SCHORLEMMER, Danijel
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MAK, Sum
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English
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Oral Presentation May 24 PM2 (16:15-18:00) 102B to the top
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|
16:15 - 16:30
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SSS01-08
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Detecting spatial variations of earthquake clustering parameters via maximum weighted likelihoods estimates
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ZHUANG, Jiancang
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ZHUANG, Jiancang
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English
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16:30 - 16:45
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SSS01-09
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Frequency distribution of the number of earthquake occurrence
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YAMASHINA, Ken'ichiro
TSURUOKA, Hiroshi
HIMENO, Tetsuto
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YAMASHINA, Ken'ichiro
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English
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16:45 - 17:00
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SSS01-10
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History of network detection completeness in Japan
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SCHORLEMMER, Danijel
HIRATA, Naoshi
ISHIGAKI, Yuzo
other
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SCHORLEMMER, Danijel
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English
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17:00 - 17:15
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SSS01-11
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Assessment of optimal short-term earthquake forecasts based on ULF seismo-magnetic data
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HAN, Peng
HATTORI, Katsumi
ZHUANG, Jiancang
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HAN, Peng
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English
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17:15 - 17:30
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SSS01-12
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Earthquake mechanism in post-megathrust intraplate stress
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HONG, Tae-kyung
LEE, Junhyung
HOUNG, Soung eil
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HONG, Tae-kyung
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English
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17:30 - 17:45
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Discussion
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| Presentation No |
Title |
Author |
Presenter |
Abstract |
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Poster Presentation May 24 Core Time (18:15-19:30) Convention Hall to the top
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SSS01-P01
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Overview of Widespread Seismicity Changes inland Japan Following the 2011 Tohoku-Oki Earthquake and Its Interpretation
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ISHIBE, Takeo
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ISHIBE, Takeo
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English
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SSS01-P02
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Three-dimensional earthquake forecasting model for the Kanto district:Results of retrospective and prospective tests
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YOKOI, Sayoko
TSURUOKA, Hiroshi
HIRATA, Naoshi
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YOKOI, Sayoko
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English
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SSS01-P03
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Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability & Global Earthquake Model - Testing Center Software Development
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BEUTIN, Thomas
LIUKIS, Maria
MAECHLING, Philip
other
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BEUTIN, Thomas
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English
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