Outline of Session


Solid Earth Sciences(S) / Seismology(SS)
S-SS27 Earthquake prediction and forecast

Short title Earthquake prediction and forecast
Oral presentation
May 24 AM1 (10:00 - 10:45) 103 Kenji Maeda 
May 24 AM2 (11:00 - 12:45) 103 Yutaka Hayashi  / Takao Kumazawa 
Poster presentation
May 24 (Core Time 18:15 - 19:30) Convention Hall
Contact Junichi Nakajima
Email nakajima@aob.gp.tohoku.ac.jp
Convener Junichi Nakajima 
Scope This session provides the opportunity for contributions that fall within the scientific spectrum of earthquake prediction and forecasting. We welcome theoretical, observational or numerical papers that are either on long- or short-term predictions, and either based on deterministic or probabilistic approaches.

Time Presentation No Title Author Presenter Abstract
Oral Presentation   May 24 AM1 (10:00-10:45) 103                              to the top
10:00 - 10:15 SSS27-01 Statistical investigation of spatio-temporal densities of foreshocks to understand earthquake predictability KAMOGAWA, Masashi
ORIHARA, Yoshiaki
KAMOGAWA, Masashi English
10:15 - 10:30 SSS27-02 Proper scoring systems available for probability forecasts targeting rare phenomena HAYASHI, Yutaka HAYASHI, Yutaka English
10:30 - 10:45 SSS27-03 Physical interpretation and detection of anomalies associated with crustal processes leading to large earthquakes SUYEHIRO, Kiyoshi
SACKS, Selwyn
SUYEHIRO, Kiyoshi English
Oral Presentation   May 24 AM2 (11:00-12:45) 103                              to the top
11:00 - 11:15 SSS27-04 Predicting changing rates of swarm activity by volumetric strain KUMAZAWA, Takao
OGATA, Yosihiko
KIMURA, Kazuhiro
KUMAZAWA, Takao English
11:15 - 11:30 SSS27-05 Seismo-ionospheric precursor monitoring system based on near-real-time spaceborne and ground GPS observation TSAI, Ho-fang
LIU, Jann-yenq
CHEN, Chia-hung
TSAI, Ho-fang English
11:30 - 11:45 SSS27-06 Long-term groundwater temperature change at a hot spring preceding the 2014 Nagano-ken Hokubu earthquake of M6.7 TSUKUDA, Tameshige TSUKUDA, Tameshige English
11:45 - 12:00 SSS27-07 Empirical forecast of mainshocks based on foreshock activities - Application to the north-central Nagano prefecture - MAEDA, Kenji
HIROSE, Fuyuki
MAEDA, Kenji English
12:00 - 12:15 SSS27-08 Estimation of inelastic displacement of a fault zone during an earthquake cycle YAMAMOTO, Kiyohiko YAMAMOTO, Kiyohiko English
12:15 - 12:30 SSS27-09 Euler Rotation of Focal Mechanism to determine the main shock of the East Japan Super Earthquake, March 2011 NIITSUMA, Nobuaki NIITSUMA, Nobuaki English
12:30 - 12:45 3-min talk in an oral session (SSS27-P02/SSS27-P04/SSS27-P05)

Presentation No Title Author Presenter Abstract
Poster Presentation   May 24  Core Time (18:15-19:30) Convention Hall                    to the top
SSS27-P01 The stress distribution in the whole area of the slab changed completely after the 2004 off Kii Peninsula earthquake MASE, Hirofumi MASE, Hirofumi English
SSS27-P02 Predicting earthquakes just before by observing electric fields TAKAHASHI, Kozo TAKAHASHI, Kozo English
SSS27-P03 Long term predictability for the earthquake recurring a few times TANAKA, Masayuki
OKADA, Masami
TANAKA, Masayuki English
SSS27-P04 Seismic quiescence and activation that precede large earthquakes and their source regions YOSHIKAWA, Sumio
YOSHIKAWA, Sumio English
SSS27-P05 On the witness testimonies before the 1946 Nankai earthquake on the Pacific coast of Kii peninsula, Japan UMEDA, Yasuhiro
ITABA, Satoshi
UMEDA, Yasuhiro English
SSS27-P06 Relation between tidal triggering effect and interplate seismicity along the Tonga-Kermadec trench HIROSE, Fuyuki
MAEDA, Kenji
HIROSE, Fuyuki English